Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 3.784696 4.149087 4.575951 5.125961 5.837810 6.764998 8.141331
2025-01-26 3.391746 3.860297 4.460244 5.329774 6.658879 8.872012 13.904401
2025-02-02 3.198242 3.740739 4.484128 5.674345 7.817867 12.694529 44.048740
2025-02-09 2.983306 3.543909 4.343353 5.706809 8.471049 16.939159 NaN
2025-02-16 2.829337 3.403838 4.250830 5.778228 9.256658 25.201207 NaN
2025-02-23 2.635431 3.183436 4.000140 5.500777 9.064847 28.902553 NaN
2025-03-02 2.532158 3.083711 3.923936 5.529342 9.714498 53.830895 NaN
2025-03-09 2.435683 2.984492 3.834651 5.509868 10.238156 239.813707 NaN
2025-03-16 2.328986 2.861583 3.692863 5.354212 10.227463 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.284919 2.829865 3.699401 5.512794 11.539821 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.186203 2.707699 3.539900 5.275764 11.048554 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 2.093521 2.590798 3.382545 5.026663 10.419317 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 2.023431 2.508390 3.284267 4.910821 10.406248 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 2.001192 2.499216 3.312753 5.091332 12.013419 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.995402 2.515121 3.386854 5.401946 15.204063 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.955558 2.473894 3.352533 5.431000 16.697874 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.922539 2.441873 3.332544 5.495224 18.954669 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.858303 2.356186 3.205734 5.245075 17.163754 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.827253 2.323748 3.178375 5.270892 18.937632 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.793745 2.285806 3.137913 5.253293 20.303112 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.749838 2.229134 3.058348 5.112374 19.521229 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.736634 2.222631 3.075102 5.255937 24.505792 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.689917 2.158763 2.976557 5.041187 21.519463 NaN NaN